Copa do Brasil | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Jun 23, 2022 at 12am UK

Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Fortaleza
2 - 0
Ceara

(Fortaleza win 2-1 on aggregate)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa do Brasil clash between Fortaleza and Ceara, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Neither side were tested in the earlier rounds of this competition, and while Fortaleza have been poor in the final third domestically this season, they have been a little sharper in that department lately. In contrast, Ceara have not been as aggressive or potent lately given their style of play, which we believe will prove costly in this game. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 48.34%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 23.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Ceara win it was 0-1 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.

Result
Fortaleza	Draw	Ceara
48.34% ( 0)	27.81% ( 0.18)	23.85% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 42.99% (

-0.61)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.33% (

-0.7)

61.66% (

0.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.51% (

-0.52)

81.49% (

0.52)

Fortaleza Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.29% (

-0.32)

25.71% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.37% (

-0.43)

60.63% (

0.43)

Ceara Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.86% (

-0.57)

42.13% (

0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.45% (

-0.5)

78.55% (

0.5)

Score Analysis

Fortaleza 48.33%

Ceara 23.85%

Draw 27.8%

Fortaleza	Draw	Ceara
1-0 @ 14.71% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 4.53% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.91% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.03) Other @ 2% Total : 48.33%	1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.53% Total : 27.8%	0-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.13% Total : 23.85%