We expect Ceara to use their home advantage to help them record a morale-boosting victory against their struggling local rivals.
However, the hosts may have left themselves with too much work to do in terms of progressing to the quarter-finals, with Fortaleza favourites to hold on.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 52.28%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 23.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ceara in this match.
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