Fortaleza have only scored once at home in their previous three fixtures against Ceara, however, Vozao tend to start matches slowly, so we expect to see a relatively even game between a pair of sides who have struggled with consistency and quality throughout the campaign.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 53.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 19.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.38%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Ceara win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.02) 
