Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 57.3%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 18.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universitario would win this match.
-0.52) 
0.05) 
