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CL
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 25, 2024 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Libertad
1 - 2
River Plate

Espinoza (40')
Merlini (74'), Ramirez (84'), Cardozo (88')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Solari (34'), Mastantuono (80')
Aliendro (59'), Fonseca (74'), Colidio (82')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Club Libertad and River Plate.

Form, Standings, Stats

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Libertad 3-0 Tachira
Wednesday, April 10 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: River Plate 2-3 Boca Juniors
Sunday, April 21 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Club Libertad had a probability of 28.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Club Libertad win was 1-0 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.

Result
Club LibertadDrawRiver Plate
28.24% (-0.094999999999999 -0.09) 25.58% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03) 46.18% (0.126 0.13)
Both teams to score 52.7% (0.025000000000006 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.16% (0.062999999999995 0.06)50.84% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.27% (0.055 0.05)72.72% (-0.055000000000007 -0.06)
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.57% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)32.43% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.05% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)68.94% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.99% (0.084999999999994 0.08)22% (-0.084 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.68% (0.127 0.13)55.32% (-0.125 -0.13)
Score Analysis
    Club Libertad 28.24%
    River Plate 46.17%
    Draw 25.57%
Club LibertadDrawRiver Plate
1-0 @ 8.04% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-1 @ 6.85% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-0 @ 4.53% (-0.021 -0.02)
3-1 @ 2.57% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.95% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 1.7% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 28.24%
1-1 @ 12.16% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.14% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.19% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 0.98% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.57%
0-1 @ 10.8%
1-2 @ 9.21% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.18% (0.020999999999999 0.02)
1-3 @ 4.65% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
0-3 @ 4.13% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.62% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.76% (0.011 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.56% (0.012 0.01)
2-4 @ 0.99% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 46.17%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Libertad 3-0 Tachira
Wednesday, April 10 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Libertad
Wednesday, April 3 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Fortaleza 1-1 Libertad
Tuesday, August 8 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Libertad 0-1 Fortaleza
Tuesday, August 1 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Tigre 0-1 Libertad
Friday, July 21 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Libertad 2-1 Tigre
Friday, July 14 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: River Plate 2-3 Boca Juniors
Sunday, April 21 at 7.30pm in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Instituto 1-3 River Plate
Tuesday, April 16 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: River Plate 2-0 Nacional
Friday, April 12 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: River Plate 2-1 Rosario
Monday, April 8 at 1am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Tachira 0-2 River Plate
Wednesday, April 3 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Huracan 1-0 River Plate
Friday, March 29 at 11.30pm in Argentine Primera Division


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