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F
Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Aug 8, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Governador Placido Aderaldo Castelo
CL

Fortaleza
1 - 1
Libertad

Marinho (90+1')
Alexandre (63'), Marinho (90+4'), Welison (90+6')
Marcelo (64'), Marcelo (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Espinoza (44')
Viera (84'), Bareiro (90+6'), Caballero (90+2')
Piris (87'), Gimenez (90+12'), Cardozo (90+5')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Goias 1-0 Fortaleza
Saturday, August 5 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Libertad 0-1 Fortaleza
Tuesday, August 1 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

We said: Fortaleza 1-0 Club Libertad (Fortaleza to win 2-0 on aggregate)

Their style may be a little more conservative than we are used to, but there is no denying this Fortaleza squad are committed to defending and have done it effectively. We expect them to frustrate the Paraguayans again this week and catch them on the break, a strategy which has worked out well for the Brazilians throughout this tournament. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 54.57%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Club Libertad had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.21%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.51%), while for a Club Libertad win it was 0-1 (6.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.

Result
FortalezaDrawClub Libertad
54.57% (0.111 0.11) 24.24% (-0.022000000000002 -0.02) 21.2% (-0.081 -0.08)
Both teams to score 49.71% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.7%51.3% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.87%73.13% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Fortaleza Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.3% (0.043999999999997 0.04)18.71% (-0.035 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.94% (0.068999999999996 0.07)50.06% (-0.061 -0.06)
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.14% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)38.86% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.41% (-0.080000000000002 -0.08)75.59% (0.088000000000008 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Fortaleza 54.56%
    Club Libertad 21.2%
    Draw 24.23%
FortalezaDrawClub Libertad
1-0 @ 12.18% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 10.21% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.65% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 5.71% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.4% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.55% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-0 @ 2.39% (0.013 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.26% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.07% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 54.56%
1-1 @ 11.51% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.27% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-2 @ 4.56% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 24.23%
0-1 @ 6.87% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
1-2 @ 5.44% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-2 @ 3.25% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.72% (-0.01 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.44% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.02% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.46%
Total : 21.2%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Goias 1-0 Fortaleza
Saturday, August 5 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Libertad 0-1 Fortaleza
Tuesday, August 1 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Fortaleza 0-3 Bragantino
Saturday, July 29 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Palmeiras 3-1 Fortaleza
Saturday, July 22 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fortaleza 0-1 Cuiaba
Sunday, July 16 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fortaleza 1-0 Athletico PR
Sunday, July 9 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Libertad 0-1 Fortaleza
Tuesday, August 1 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Tigre 0-1 Libertad
Friday, July 21 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Libertad 2-1 Tigre
Friday, July 14 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Libertad 1-1 Atletico Mineiro
Tuesday, June 27 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Athletico PR 1-0 Libertad
Tuesday, June 6 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Alianza Lima 1-2 Libertad
Wednesday, May 24 at 3am in Copa Libertadores


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