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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 3, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
CL

Nacional
2 - 0
Libertad

Lozano (32'), Bentancourt (62')
Lozano (24')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Espinoza (71'), Bareiro (73')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Nacional and Club Libertad.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Penarol 0-0 Nacional
Friday, March 29 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Fortaleza 1-1 Libertad
Tuesday, August 8 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 40.17%. A win for Club Libertad had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Club Libertad win was 0-1 (9.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawClub Libertad
40.17% (1.745 1.75) 27.14% (-0.102 -0.1) 32.68% (-1.642 -1.64)
Both teams to score 49.96% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.66% (0.126 0.13)55.34% (-0.125 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.45% (0.103 0.1)76.55% (-0.102 -0.1)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73% (1.041 1.04)27% (-1.04 -1.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.65% (1.343 1.34)62.35% (-1.342 -1.34)
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.44% (-1.025 -1.03)31.56% (1.026 1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.04% (-1.196 -1.2)67.96% (1.199 1.2)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 40.17%
    Club Libertad 32.68%
    Draw 27.14%
NacionalDrawClub Libertad
1-0 @ 11.15% (0.27 0.27)
2-1 @ 8.43% (0.213 0.21)
2-0 @ 7.31% (0.382 0.38)
3-1 @ 3.68% (0.196 0.2)
3-0 @ 3.19% (0.255 0.26)
3-2 @ 2.12% (0.056 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.2% (0.097 0.1)
4-0 @ 1.04% (0.111 0.11)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 40.17%
1-1 @ 12.86% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 8.52% (-0.041 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 27.14%
0-1 @ 9.83% (-0.325 -0.33)
1-2 @ 7.42% (-0.241 -0.24)
0-2 @ 5.67% (-0.357 -0.36)
1-3 @ 2.85% (-0.177 -0.18)
0-3 @ 2.18% (-0.204 -0.2)
2-3 @ 1.87% (-0.059 -0.06)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 32.68%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Penarol 0-0 Nacional
Friday, March 29 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 0-0 Progreso
Saturday, March 23 at 9.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 2-1 Always Ready (5-4 pen.)
Friday, March 15 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Defensor 3-3 Nacional
Sunday, March 10 at 10.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Always Ready 1-0 Nacional
Friday, March 8 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 3-0 Wanderers
Saturday, March 2 at 11pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Fortaleza 1-1 Libertad
Tuesday, August 8 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Libertad 0-1 Fortaleza
Tuesday, August 1 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Tigre 0-1 Libertad
Friday, July 21 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Libertad 2-1 Tigre
Friday, July 14 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Libertad 1-1 Atletico Mineiro
Tuesday, June 27 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Athletico PR 1-0 Libertad
Tuesday, June 6 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores


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