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Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Jul 15, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello
F

Defensa
0 - 1
Flamengo


Contreras (43'), Antonio Velasco Escalante (78')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Michael (21')
(25'), Henrique (37'), Piris (90+2')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 47.88%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 27.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.34%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 2-1 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.

Result
Defensa y JusticiaDrawFlamengo
27.94%24.18%47.88%
Both teams to score 57.05%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.96%45.03%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.61%67.38%
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.36%29.63%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.32%65.68%
Flamengo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.08%18.92%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.58%50.42%
Score Analysis
    Defensa y Justicia 27.94%
    Flamengo 47.88%
    Draw 24.18%
Defensa y JusticiaDrawFlamengo
2-1 @ 6.9%
1-0 @ 6.82%
2-0 @ 4.15%
3-1 @ 2.8%
3-2 @ 2.33%
3-0 @ 1.68%
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 27.94%
1-1 @ 11.35%
2-2 @ 5.75%
0-0 @ 5.61%
3-3 @ 1.29%
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.18%
1-2 @ 9.45%
0-1 @ 9.34%
0-2 @ 7.77%
1-3 @ 5.25%
0-3 @ 4.31%
2-3 @ 3.19%
1-4 @ 2.18%
0-4 @ 1.8%
2-4 @ 1.33%
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 47.88%

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