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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 18, 2021 at 11.15pm UK
Allianz Parque
DY

Palmeiras
3 - 4
Defensa

Rafael (11'), Willian (35'), Scarpa (75')
Scarpa (71'), Garcia (78'), Barbosa da Silva (82')
Barbosa da Silva (90')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Bou (9', 27'), Rodriguez (52'), Romero (90+4')
Rodriguez (41'), Frias (45+2'), Tripichio (54'), Britez (79'), Romero (90+6')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 57.67%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 17.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.46%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.

Result
PalmeirasDrawDefensa y Justicia
57.67%25.27%17.06%
Both teams to score 40.65%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.1%59.9%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.83%80.16%
Palmeiras Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.15%20.84%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.47%53.52%
Defensa y Justicia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.35%48.64%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.3%83.7%
Score Analysis
    Palmeiras 57.65%
    Defensa y Justicia 17.06%
    Draw 25.25%
PalmeirasDrawDefensa y Justicia
1-0 @ 15.89%
2-0 @ 12.46%
2-1 @ 8.98%
3-0 @ 6.52%
3-1 @ 4.7%
4-0 @ 2.56%
4-1 @ 1.84%
3-2 @ 1.69%
Other @ 3.02%
Total : 57.65%
1-1 @ 11.45%
0-0 @ 10.13%
2-2 @ 3.24%
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 25.25%
0-1 @ 7.31%
1-2 @ 4.13%
0-2 @ 2.63%
1-3 @ 0.99%
Other @ 2%
Total : 17.06%

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