Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 47.21%. A win for 9 de Octubre had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest 9 de Octubre win was 0-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
