Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Independiente Petrolero had a probability of 31.31% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.2%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Independiente Petrolero win was 2-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
