SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 48.36%. A win for Independiente Petrolero had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.66%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Independiente Petrolero win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Emelec would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Emelec | Draw | Independiente Petrolero |
48.36% ( -0.04) | 22.93% ( -0) | 28.71% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 62.03% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.27% ( 0.05) | 38.73% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.96% ( 0.05) | 61.04% ( -0.04) |
| Emelec Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.68% ( 0) | 16.32% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.1% | 45.9% ( 0) |
| Independiente Petrolero Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.13% ( 0.06) | 25.88% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.14% ( 0.08) | 60.86% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Emelec | Draw | Independiente Petrolero |
| 2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.94% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.67% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.83% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.57% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.9% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.55% Total : 48.36% | 1-1 @ 10.34% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.34% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0)Other @ 0.29% Total : 22.92% | 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.86% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.15% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.07% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 2.38% Total : 28.72% |
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