SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Deportivo Tachira had a probability of 16.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.66%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Deportivo Tachira win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Tachira |
58.46% ( 0.14) | 24.99% ( -0.03) | 16.55% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 40.44% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.34% ( -0.04) | 59.65% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.02% ( -0.03) | 79.97% ( 0.03) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.57% ( 0.04) | 20.43% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.12% ( 0.07) | 52.88% ( -0.07) |
| Deportivo Tachira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.83% ( -0.17) | 49.17% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.92% ( -0.12) | 84.07% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Tachira |
| 1-0 @ 15.95% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 12.66% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.76% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.89% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.13% Total : 58.44% | 1-1 @ 11.32% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.43% Total : 24.98% | 0-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.92% Total : 16.55% |
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