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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 24, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
2 - 1
Tachira

Castro (14'), Recoba (21')
Castro (45'), Ruiz Diaz (71'), Recoba (71')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Ruiz Diaz (30')
Vivas (33'), Robles (55'), Ruiz Diaz (90+3')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Nacional and Deportivo Tachira.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Nacional 6-2 Rampla
Saturday, April 20 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Libertad 3-0 Tachira
Wednesday, April 10 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Deportivo Tachira had a probability of 16.55%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.66%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Deportivo Tachira win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawDeportivo Tachira
58.46% (0.144 0.14) 24.99% (-0.032 -0.03) 16.55% (-0.112 -0.11)
Both teams to score 40.44% (-0.116 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.34% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)59.65% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.02% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)79.97% (0.028999999999996 0.03)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.57% (0.040999999999997 0.04)20.43% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.12% (0.065999999999995 0.07)52.88% (-0.067 -0.07)
Deportivo Tachira Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.83% (-0.17299999999999 -0.17)49.17% (0.173 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.92% (-0.124 -0.12)84.07% (0.12299999999999 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 58.44%
    Deportivo Tachira 16.55%
    Draw 24.98%
NacionalDrawDeportivo Tachira
1-0 @ 15.95% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
2-0 @ 12.66% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 8.99% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
3-0 @ 6.71% (0.035 0.04)
3-1 @ 4.76% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 2.66% (0.018 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.89% (0.0029999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 1.69% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 58.44%
1-1 @ 11.32% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 10.04% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.19% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 24.98%
0-1 @ 7.13% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
1-2 @ 4.02% (-0.029000000000001 -0.03)
0-2 @ 2.53% (-0.022 -0.02)
1-3 @ 0.95% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 16.55%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Nacional 6-2 Rampla
Saturday, April 20 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Miramar Misiones 1-2 Nacional
Wednesday, April 17 at 12.30am in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: River Plate 2-0 Nacional
Friday, April 12 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Cerro Largo
Saturday, April 6 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Libertad
Wednesday, April 3 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Penarol 0-0 Nacional
Friday, March 29 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Libertad 3-0 Tachira
Wednesday, April 10 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Tachira 0-2 River Plate
Wednesday, April 3 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Estudiantes 1-1 Tachira (3-1 pen.)
Thursday, March 9 at 12am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Independiente 4-1 Tachira
Wednesday, August 10 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Tachira 0-1 Independiente
Wednesday, August 3 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Santos 1-1 Tachira (0-0 pen.)
Thursday, July 7 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana


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