SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 56.19%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 18.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.49%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Rampla Juniors win it was 0-1 (7.24%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Rampla Juniors |
56.19% ( 0.07) | 24.93% ( -0.04) | 18.88% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 44.42% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.46% ( 0.13) | 56.54% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.47% ( 0.11) | 77.53% ( -0.11) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.91% ( 0.08) | 20.09% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.66% ( 0.13) | 52.34% ( -0.13) |
| Rampla Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.59% ( 0.05) | 44.41% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.54% ( 0.04) | 80.46% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Rampla Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 14.32% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 11.49% 2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.42% Total : 56.19% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 3.79% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.6% Total : 24.92% | 0-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.72% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.28% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 1.68% Total : 18.88% |
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