SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 60.3%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 15.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.1%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro Largo |
60.3% ( -0.13) | 24.27% ( 0.07) | 15.42% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 40.12% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.15% ( -0.16) | 58.85% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.64% ( -0.13) | 79.35% ( 0.12) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.6% ( -0.11) | 19.4% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.78% ( -0.18) | 51.21% ( 0.18) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.77% ( -0.02) | 50.23% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.18% ( -0.01) | 84.81% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 15.97% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 13.1% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.16% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.94% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.02% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.48% Total : 60.29% | 1-1 @ 11% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 3.11% ( -0)Other @ 0.42% Total : 24.27% | 0-1 @ 6.71% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 3.79% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 15.42% |
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