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Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 9, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Olimpia
3 - 0
Atletico Nacional

Gamarra (19'), Paiva (50'), Torres (90')
Torres (12'), Torres (80')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Barrera (5'), Salazar (23'), Ocampo (60'), Deossa (90')

Form, Standings, Stats

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Last Game: Patronato 0-2 Olimpia
Thursday, May 25 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
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Last Game: Melgar 0-1 Atletico Nacional
Thursday, May 25 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
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We said: Olimpia 2-1 Atletico Nacional

The onus is largely on Olimpia to make home advantage count and confirm their place in the knockout round, so we expect them to be fully up for this one. We can also see the hosts emerging victorious come the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpia win with a probability of 42.89%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Olimpia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 0-1 (9.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Olimpia would win this match.

Result
OlimpiaDrawAtletico Nacional
42.89% (0.214 0.21) 27.61% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 29.49% (-0.262 -0.26)
Both teams to score 47.37% (-0.252 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.94% (-0.262 -0.26)58.05% (0.258 0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.26% (-0.207 -0.21)78.73% (0.202 0.2)
Olimpia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.2% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)26.8% (0.004999999999999 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.91% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)62.09% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.71% (-0.34 -0.34)35.28% (0.33600000000001 0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.96% (-0.355 -0.36)72.03% (0.351 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Olimpia 42.89%
    Atletico Nacional 29.49%
    Draw 27.61%
OlimpiaDrawAtletico Nacional
1-0 @ 12.45% (0.12 0.12)
2-1 @ 8.54% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-0 @ 8.2% (0.077 0.08)
3-1 @ 3.75% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 3.6% (0.033 0.03)
3-2 @ 1.95% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.23%
4-0 @ 1.18% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 42.89%
1-1 @ 12.97% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.46% (0.093 0.09)
2-2 @ 4.45% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 27.61%
0-1 @ 9.85% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.76% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-2 @ 5.13% (-0.044 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.35% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.78% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.55% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 29.49%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Patronato 0-2 Olimpia
Thursday, May 25 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 2-2 Olimpia
Wednesday, May 3 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Olimpia 1-0 Patronato
Wednesday, April 19 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Melgar 1-1 Olimpia
Friday, April 7 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico GO 2-0 Olimpia (5-3 pen.)
Friday, July 8 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Olimpia 2-0 Atletico GO
Friday, July 1 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Melgar 0-1 Atletico Nacional
Thursday, May 25 at 3am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 2-2 Olimpia
Wednesday, May 3 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 3-1 Melgar
Friday, April 21 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Patronato 1-2 Atletico Nacional
Wednesday, April 5 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 1-1 Olimpia
Friday, March 4 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Olimpia 3-1 Atletico Nacional
Friday, February 25 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores


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