Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Guarani win with a probability of 41.38%. A win for Royal Pari had a probability of 31.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Guarani win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Royal Pari win was 1-0 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Guarani would win this match.