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Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
May 30, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Alberto Jose Armando

Boca Juniors
4 - 0
Nacional

Zenon (9'), Cavani (14'), Saracchi (19'), Rojo (53')
Fernandez (56')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Mancilla (89')
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Boca Juniors and Nacional Potosi.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Boca Juniors 0-0 Talleres
Sunday, May 26 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 2-1 Sportivo Trinidense
Wednesday, May 15 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 78.16%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Nacional Potosi had a probability of 7.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.94%) and 1-0 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.75%), while for a Nacional Potosi win it was 0-1 (2.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.

Result
Boca JuniorsDrawNacional Potosi
78.16% (-1.231 -1.23) 14.21% (0.736 0.74) 7.63% (0.497 0.5)
Both teams to score 45.75% (-0.297 -0.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.3% (-1.756 -1.76)36.7% (1.759 1.76)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.13% (-1.936 -1.94)58.87% (1.939 1.94)
Boca Juniors Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.41% (-0.64 -0.64)7.59% (0.6421 0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.85% (-1.679 -1.68)27.15% (1.681 1.68)
Nacional Potosi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.51% (0.023000000000003 0.02)50.49% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.01% (0.018000000000001 0.02)84.99% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Boca Juniors 78.15%
    Nacional Potosi 7.63%
    Draw 14.21%
Boca JuniorsDrawNacional Potosi
2-0 @ 12.73% (0.26 0.26)
3-0 @ 10.94% (-0.15 -0.15)
1-0 @ 9.88% (0.521 0.52)
2-1 @ 8.7% (0.182 0.18)
3-1 @ 7.48% (-0.093999999999999 -0.09)
4-0 @ 7.06% (-0.338 -0.34)
4-1 @ 4.82% (-0.228 -0.23)
5-0 @ 3.64% (-0.305 -0.31)
3-2 @ 2.56% (-0.03 -0.03)
5-1 @ 2.49% (-0.207 -0.21)
4-2 @ 1.65% (-0.077 -0.08)
6-0 @ 1.57% (-0.189 -0.19)
6-1 @ 1.07% (-0.129 -0.13)
Other @ 3.57%
Total : 78.15%
1-1 @ 6.75% (0.36 0.36)
0-0 @ 3.83% (0.322 0.32)
2-2 @ 2.97% (0.064 0.06)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 14.21%
0-1 @ 2.62% (0.221 0.22)
1-2 @ 2.31% (0.125 0.13)
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 7.63%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Boca Juniors 0-0 Talleres
Sunday, May 26 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: C. Cordoba 2-4 Boca Juniors
Monday, May 20 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Boca Juniors 1-1 Fortaleza
Thursday, May 16 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Tucuman 1-0 Boca Juniors
Monday, May 13 at 12.15am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Sportivo Trinidense 1-2 Boca Juniors
Thursday, May 9 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Estudiantes 1-1 Boca Juniors (3-1 pen.)
Wednesday, May 1 at 12am in Argentine Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 2-1 Sportivo Trinidense
Wednesday, May 15 at 3am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Nacional 4-1 Fortaleza
Thursday, May 9 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Sportivo Trinidense 2-0 Nacional
Wednesday, April 24 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Fortaleza 5-0 Nacional
Wednesday, April 10 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Nacional 0-0 Boca Juniors
Thursday, April 4 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Universitario de Vinto 0-2 Nacional
Wednesday, March 6 at 10pm in Copa Sudamericana


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