Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 55.08%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 20.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
-0.37) 
0.12) 
