SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 55.08%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 20.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Fortaleza |
55.08% ( -0.37) | 24.77% ( 0.12) | 20.15% ( 0.25) |
| Both teams to score 46.7% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.47% ( -0.16) | 54.52% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.12% ( -0.14) | 75.88% ( 0.13) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.25% ( -0.21) | 19.74% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.23% ( -0.33) | 51.77% ( 0.33) |
| Fortaleza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.19% ( 0.17) | 41.81% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 21.73% ( 0.15) | 78.27% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Fortaleza |
| 1-0 @ 13.39% 2-0 @ 10.86% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 9.47% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 5.12% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 55.07% | 1-1 @ 11.67% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.25% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.71% Total : 24.76% | 0-1 @ 7.2% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.13% Total : 20.15% |
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