Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 73.19%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Nacional Potosi had a probability of 10.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.81%) and 3-0 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.76%), while for a Nacional Potosi win it was 0-1 (3.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.03) 
