SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Academia Puerto Cabello had a probability of 23.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.71%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.05%), while for an Academia Puerto Cabello win it was 0-1 (7.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Deportes Tolima would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Deportes Tolima | Draw | Academia Puerto Cabello |
51.11% ( 0.06) | 25.42% ( 0.03) | 23.47% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 49.01% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.36% ( -0.18) | 53.64% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.86% ( -0.15) | 75.13% ( 0.15) |
| Deportes Tolima Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.99% ( -0.05) | 21% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.22% ( -0.07) | 53.78% ( 0.07) |
| Academia Puerto Cabello Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.04% ( -0.18) | 37.96% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.27% ( -0.18) | 74.73% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Deportes Tolima | Draw | Academia Puerto Cabello |
| 1-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.97% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.91% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.45% Total : 51.11% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.97% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.84% Total : 25.42% | 0-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.6% Total : 23.47% |
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