Tolima have already shown during the group stages that they are capable impressing against the most illustrious teams in the group. Nevertheless, while we feel that only one goal will be netted in this contest, it could come for the home side, securing a potentially-decisive result for both clubs.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 71.09%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 10.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.51%) and 3-0 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Deportes Tolima win it was 0-1 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
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