Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 67.48%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Deportivo Cuenca had a probability of 12.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.72%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Deportivo Cuenca win it was 0-1 (4.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Emelec would win this match.
-0.38) 
0.19) 
