Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 51.13%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Emelec had a probability of 21.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.86%) and 1-2 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Emelec win it was 1-0 (8.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
