Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Tachira win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Emelec had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Tachira win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Emelec win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
