Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 45.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 26.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.88%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (9.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
0.61) 
-0.68) 
