We are only on matchday nine of the new Brasileiro Serie A campaign, and already these sides look like they will be in the thick of the title race. That being said, Sao Paulo have done well to fight their way back and stay in their away matches, and we believe they will do the same in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 37.6%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.87%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-0 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.

Result
Gremio	Draw	Sao Paulo
34.12% ( -0.07)	28.28% ( 0.06)	37.6% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 46.86% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.64% (

-0.21)

59.36% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.25% (

-0.16)

79.75% (

0.16)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.35% (

-0.16)

32.65% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.81% (

-0.18)

69.19% (

0.17)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.57% (

-0.1)

30.43% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.37% (

-0.11)

66.63% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Gremio 34.12%

Sao Paulo 37.59%

Draw 28.28%

Gremio	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 11.12% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 6.22% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.76% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.64% Total : 34.12%	1-1 @ 13.23% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.93% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.28%	0-1 @ 11.81% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 7.87% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.03% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.79% 2-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.29% Total : 37.59%