We said: Flamengo 2-0 Deportes Tolima
When things are at their worst, Flamengo can always count on the Copa Libertadores to boost their spirits and keep them motivated.
Even though they do not look like the South American force of recent years, they have more than enough quality individuals to pick up the slack and make it through this tie.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 52.84%. A win for Deportes Tolima had a probability of 24.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Deportes Tolima win was 1-2 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.