Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 61.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 16.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.75%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.02) 
