Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union La Calera win with a probability of 46.9%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 24.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union La Calera win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.89%), while for a Universidad Catolica win it was 0-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union La Calera would win this match.