Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
May 24, 2022 at 11.15pm UK
FT(HT: 2-1)
Clavijo (38'),
Rivas (88' pen.)
Ordonez (77')
Form, Standings, Stats
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We said: Union La Calera 2-1 Universidad Catolica
While their opponents have nothing to play for, Union La Calera will be motivated to pick up the three points that could help them reach the knockout round, and we think that they will do just that by utilising home advantage to clinch a potentially crucial victory.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union La Calera win with a probability of 46.9%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 24.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union La Calera win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.89%), while for a Universidad Catolica win it was 0-1 (10.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union La Calera would win this match.
| Result |
| Union La Calera | Draw | Universidad Catolica |
46.9% ( 0.01) | 28.77% ( -0) | 24.34% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 41.08% |
| 35.68% ( 0) | 64.32% ( -0) |
| 16.59% ( 0) | 83.41% |
| 72.33% ( 0.01) | 27.67% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 36.78% ( 0.01) | 63.22% ( -0.01) |
| Universidad Catolica Goals |
| 56.79% ( -0.01) | 43.21% ( 0.01) |
