Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 52.43%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 20.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.13%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Universidad Catolica win it was 0-1 (8.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
