Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 37.41%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.74%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 1-0 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.
