Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 35.9%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 35.5% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.58%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 0-1 (11.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
