Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 49.79%. A win for Patronato had a probability of 25.22% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.95%). The likeliest Patronato win was 0-1 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.