Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 38.22%. A win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.82%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Newell's Old Boys win was 0-1 (11.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Lorenzo would win this match.
