Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 44.86%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 27.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.81%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for San Lorenzo in this match.