Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 37.23%. A win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 35.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest San Lorenzo win was 1-0 (10.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.
