Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 39.38%. A win for Santa Fe had a probability of 31.96% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Santa Fe win was 1-0 (11.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
