Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 38.18%. A win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.06%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Atletico Tucuman win was 0-1 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.