Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 51.63%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 26% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.81%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.
