Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 44.4%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.51%) and 1-3 (5.45%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
