Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 41.42%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 32.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-0 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.02) 
