Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 57.88%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 21.37% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.05%) and 0-1 (7.64%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (5.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
