Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 53.79%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 24.99% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.97%) and 0-1 (6.76%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.