Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 48.2%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (8.73%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-0 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.
