Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 51.85%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 24.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.

Result
Jong AZ	Draw	MVV Maastricht
51.85% ( -0.27)	23.17% ( -0.19)	24.98% ( 0.46)

Both teams to score 57.75% (

1.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.12% (

1.26)

42.87% (

-1.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.72% (

1.24)

65.28% (

-1.24)

Jong AZ Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.41% (

0.36)

16.58% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.61% (

0.65)

46.38% (

-0.65)

MVV Maastricht Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.23% (

1.05)

30.77% (

-1.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.96% (

1.22)

67.03% (

-1.23)

Score Analysis

Jong AZ 51.85%

MVV Maastricht 24.98%

Draw 23.16%

Jong AZ	Draw	MVV Maastricht
2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.41) 2-0 @ 8.24% ( -0.26) 3-1 @ 5.81% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 3.43% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 2.61% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.26% Total : 51.85%	1-1 @ 10.8% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.29) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.16%	1-2 @ 6.37% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 6.02% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.9% Total : 24.98%