SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | VVV-Venlo | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Roda JC | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Almere City | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | De Graafschap | 6 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Jong PSV | 6 | -7 | 5 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 43.59%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 31.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.91%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Roda JC | Draw | De Graafschap |
43.59% ( 0.65) | 24.7% ( -0.06) | 31.72% ( -0.58) |
| Both teams to score 57.57% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.63% ( 0.06) | 45.37% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.29% ( 0.06) | 67.71% ( -0.06) |
| Roda JC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.11% ( 0.32) | 20.89% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.4% ( 0.5) | 53.6% ( -0.49) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.77% ( -0.34) | 27.23% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.35% ( -0.45) | 62.66% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Roda JC | Draw | De Graafschap |
| 2-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 4.74% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.69% Total : 43.59% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.69% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.69% | 1-2 @ 7.54% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.99% Total : 31.72% |
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