Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 46.3%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 30.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.