Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 46.3%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 30.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.

Result
Jong Ajax	Draw	De Graafschap
46.3% ( 1.11)	23.4% ( -0.05)	30.29% ( -1.06)

Both teams to score 61.38% (

-0.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.96% (

-0.29)

40.04% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.59% (

-0.3)

62.4% (

0.29)

Jong Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.4% (

0.32)

17.6% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.83% (

0.56)

48.17% (

-0.57)

De Graafschap Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.48% (

-0.8)

25.51% (

0.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.63% (

-1.1)

60.36% (

1.09)

Score Analysis

Jong Ajax 46.3%

De Graafschap 30.29%

Draw 23.4%

Jong Ajax	Draw	De Graafschap
2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 7.8% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.23) 3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 3.66% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.33% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.9% Total : 46.3%	1-1 @ 10.65% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.4%	1-2 @ 7.28% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 6.13% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.48% Total : 30.29%