Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 60.33%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 20.76% and a draw had a probability of 18.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.28%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (5.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.