SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 50.17%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.16%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 2-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jong PSV | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
28.49% ( 0.01) | 21.34% ( 0.03) | 50.17% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 67.82% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.93% ( -0.12) | 31.07% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.53% ( -0.14) | 52.47% ( 0.14) |
| Jong PSV Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.88% ( -0.05) | 22.11% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.51% ( -0.08) | 55.48% ( 0.08) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.08% ( -0.05) | 12.92% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.64% ( -0.11) | 39.36% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong PSV | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.35% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.25% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.64% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.26% ( -0)Other @ 3.31% Total : 28.49% | 1-1 @ 8.82% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.81% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.51% Total : 21.34% | 1-2 @ 9.03% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.16% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.02)0-1 @ 5.85% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 4.65% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.08% ( 0)1-4 @ 3.15% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 2.38% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.09% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 1.2% ( -0.01)2-5 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.35% Total : 50.17% |
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